Athletic Bilbao Tenerife (4:1)
Roma Catania (1:0)
Wolfsburg Schalke 04 (2:1)
Another good day for the selections. I try to put up selections that will present an easy trade and thats why on Sunday I had said go in with smaller stakes as stats indicated they would be winners, but perhaps a little tighter. At the time of posting I was most confident about the spanish game, but when it came nearer to KO I struggled to remember why I was so confident. Anyway, with Tenerife losing a player early on and them conceeding games anyway the floodgates seemed to open up.
Struggling to remember gives me more reason to do what I have been thinking about recently, which is to formalise my selection process. So far I have done pretty well, but if I can turn this into a formal system with ratings it might be a little better. Entry and exit points need to be decided as well. How far should I let things go? A lot of people work to the ‘out at 2′ rule with 0-0 games, but part of me wants to use out at half odds.
Getting a formal system and sticking to it is the key to making all this work. Its easy to get carried away with successes, but you really find out if you are cut out for this by looking at your behaviour when things are going wrong. Lately I’ve let disipline slip and have suffered because of it.
I did a quick CS trade as well. I backed 2-1/1-2 in the game below and had a tiny bit on 0-0 for part insurance. At 0-1 I was looking at my position, figuring out what I might do. Before I had time to act it was 1-1, perfect! Both score lines came in nicely and I took the profit there and then. 35% return on my initial out lay, can’t complain with that. As a comparision If you lay the draw with £20 at 4s and you make full profit, you win 33% of your total risk. However, the difference with the CS trades is I feel a lot more comfortable and at HT with no score I could probably get out with only a tiny loss. Make sense?
For Monday only Valencia v Getafe small stakes. Why small? Because of the lack of ‘great’ form from Valencia. However all the stats point to a strong win for Valencia and previous four H2Hs have been clear LTD winners.
Nothing stand out today, but if you want to I’d play these with a smaller than normal stake
Athletic Bilbao v Tenerife
Wolfsburg Schalke 04
Nice return in Genoa
I forgot to say that with the away teams I might look to take profit early.
Borussia Dortmund v Hannover 96 (4-1)
Nurnberg Bayern Munich (1-1) profit available at 0-1 but suppose should count that as a loss
Genoa Udinese (3-0)
Wolverhampton Chelsea (0-2)
Borussia Dortmund v Hannover 96
Nurnberg Bayern Munich
So my picks from yesterday seemed to have come good. I didn’t trade Bayern simply because I forgot but I did the others and made the money. I think I was a little conservative when playing and greatly reduced by red as soon as the first goal went in, but hey, green is green. I picked up about 50% of my stake.
So for tomorrow I’m looking at Barca and Braga.
P&L 12th Feb 2010
Just one trade today. I laid the AUQ in the above game after the first goal had been scored. From a £30 lay stake there was about £11 green to take, but I only cut my liability in half. Two quick goals followed and by HT i was looking at a small loss. I stayed in a little while longer, 3-1, but I managed to hang in there for around a 5 quid loss. Did a quick trade on another market to bring down the loss a little more.
Despite the small hit im going to continue looking for opportunities just after a goal has been scored.
Yesterday I had selected Moenchengladbach v Nurnberg as a possible LTD trade. M’back scored first and the game finished 2-1. Ones to watch for Sat if prices are favourable: Bayern, Leverkusen, Roma, Benfica
I thought I handled the days trades overall pretty well. First up, I made profit across the board and thats the primary goal. With the chelsea game I decided a win on one market and a loss on the other would be an ok way to finish up. Inter game was dissapointing, I had a tiny moment to get out the game with a small profit when at 1:1 Parma got a red card, but that faded and I took a loss. With the Utd game after it went 1:1 I laid the u3.5 again and that meant I was back in profit a lot sooner. Arsenal’s game finished up only 1:0 which was a surprising result to me.
Yes, i’ve been away from here for a long time. I’ve been trading since I last posted but I can’t say I’ve made any real progress in building my bank. I thought perhaps I should get back here, post my trades and get some disipline back. I think i’ve learnt a lot since I last posted, found a lot of useful resources and i’ve signed up to a few services.
Feb 1st coming up.. lets make it a good month.
Pretty active weekend with a lot sports traded. Overall not a huge amount of profit made but it was very encouraging that I finished with a profit, and even more so as it was over a wide range of sports and techniques.
After a tip off from a friend I looked into the Charlton game on Saturday afternoon. Charlton looked a strong side and I took the position to lay the draw. Turned out to be a nice easy trade and I greened up after the second goal for a tidy profit
Layed the Draw, Backing out after 2nd goal.
I did some some scalping on the horses for small stakes, this was very successful indeed! I managed to catch a beauty swing trade from 2.36 all the way to 2.8, which was pretty much the whole swing. Also turned on the offset and stop loss and had loads of successful few tick profits over a bunch of races. Not a lot of money made, but that wasn’t the point when using £2 stakes. I found having the stop loss in there really helped with my inability to take losses, I was hesitating too much and this took all that responsibility away from me.
Did some tennis as well. On a tip I had backed Venus to win over Kim Clijsters. Well the first set was a nightmare and the stop loss was hit immediately I was down £17 but I then spend the next two sets scalping money back with smaller stakes. I was very pleased that I managed to get that down to a £6 loss. I’d scalped loads of times and about 95% were winners.
I need to start documenting things properly. Keeping a record is essential and I’ve not really been doing that with my recent trading activities. One for the to-do list.
So currently I’ve got a finger or two in a few different pies. I’m looking at applying trading to various markets.
I’ve recently tried out trading the match winner in tennis, and that has proved to be pretty successful. Using only small stakes I’ve managed to green up nearly every match. I’ve used the common strats found on the net like 0/15 – 40, backing a strong server, and backing the favourite after losing the first set (its amazing how often the fav has a slow start and then comes back to storm through)
I’ve tried various strategies with the football too. I’ve signed up with a service called FTS that recommends games to trade, i’ve scalped the under 2.5 and 3.5 markets, i’ve also tried trading the correct score market. Actually I did the CS market just yesterday and I was pretty pleased with my efforts. I didn’t find the process to easy to understand at first, and probably still don’t get 100% – I know there is a lot more to learn – but I came out with no loss and had it not been for my stupidity in trying to scalp a few extra ticks in the later stages of the match I’d have come out about £7 up. As it happens, over all markets, my profit was 9p
After being foolish, I escaped with a tiny green overall.
I’ve tried laying the field in horse races. Two races so far with one winner and one loser, so im up slightly on that. The races have to meet certain criteria and so it can’t be used for every race.
What else… Oh, im also following Dutch and Win with a slight modification. I’m not yet convinced that its a smart thing to be involved with. Using a covering system means that you could take a huge hit if losing streaks prove to be common. However, I’ve got involved and im up almost £300 in about 3 weeks – With the last two races yesterday I was at risk of losing all of my profits though!
I’m going to get back into Matched Betting as well. There’s plenty of opportunity to make a grand or three there, something I should really not pass up.